NHL huhut, pelaajasiirrot ja sopimukset 2019-20

Ilmeisesti Carolina ostaa Marleun ulos ja suuntaa takaisin Sharkseihin. Toronto järjestelee lisää cappi tilaa Marnerille.

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Sitte odotellaan.

Ehkä Devils?

Kyllä, Devils.

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Kaikesta huolimatta kuvittelin, että Subbanin arvo olisi enemmän. Santini, Davies ja pari kakkoskierroksen varausta tuntuu kevyeltä… Tosin ehkä Predskin kaipaa palkkakattoon tilaa. …ja PK oli se luonnollisin kaupattava kovasta pakistosta.

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Marner todennäköisesti odottaa tällä hetkellä muiden tarjouksia ja tekee sen jälkeen päätöksiä.

Marner on rajotettu vapaa agentti, eli aika vähän on Marnerilla itellään päätöksiä tehtävänä. Heinäkuussa pystyy hyväksymään jonkun muun joukkueen mahdollisen offer sheetin jos ei ole vielä Leafsin kanssa sopimusta syntyny, mut siihen se oikeastaan jääkin. Kaikki muu on oikeastaan Leafsin päätöksiä.

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Nyt onkin sitten ihan ilmaista. Osavaltion nollavero toki vaikuttaa.

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Ilmeisesti Karlsson haluaaa jatkossakin kuulua Vegasin suunnitelmiin eikä joutua kauppatavaraksi ja vaihtaa maisemaa. Tuolla sopimuksella saa olla huoleti. Tosin tuolla sopimuksella palkkakattokin jo ylittyy ja vielä olisi jatkosopimuksia tehtävä. Siksi kauppa huhuissa onkin olleet Miller ja muita alemman ketjun pelaajia, sekä Gusev jonka tuleva sopimus ei millään mahdu jos pelaajia ei ole useampi myynti listalla.

Niin on rajoitettu mutta ei maksa mitään tsekata muiden offence sheetit.

Lopullinen päätös on silti Leafsin, ei Marnerin.

Jos Leafs ei vastaa offer sheetiin niin silloin päätös ei ole heidän.

Olisi jopa tyhmää olla katsomatta offer sheet.

Silloin Leafs on päättänyt olla vastaamatta.
Mutta en usko kenenkään tarjoavan, koska menettäisi niin monta varausvuoroa tulevaisuudesta.

Kunhan on vain puheita tässä vaiheessa vuotta.

Torontolle olisi helpotus, että joku tarjoisi Marnerille offer sheetin, jos takaisinpäin olisi tulossa vähintään 2 ykköskieroksen, yksi kakkos ja kolmoskieroksen varausvuorot.

saisivat Kapasen, Jonhssonin ja laadukkaan pakin palkkakaton alle.

Nimenomaan, sillonkin se lopullinen päätös on Leafsilla. Marnerin kohtalo on käytännössä täysin Leafsin käsissä, paitsi jos Marner haluaa lopettaa NHL-uransa ja lähteä vaikka eurooppaan tai venäjälle pelailemaan. Kaikissa muissa skenaarioissa se on käytännössä Leafs joka asioista päättää.

Offer sheetejä tuskin tarjotaan yhtään. Ykskään joukkue ei maksa Marnerille niin paljoa, etteikö Leafs suostuis sitä sopimusta “mätsäämään”, ja lisäks Marnerin palkka tulee olemaan käytännössä lähes varmasti 10 miljoonan paremmalla puolen, mikä tarkottais että Offer Sheetin tehnyt joukkue joutuisi maksamaan Leafsille neljä ykköskierroksen varausvuoroa. En usko että ykskään joukkue näkee Marneria ihan niin arvokkaana pelaajana.

Torontolle se ois toki hyvä, mutta en usko että mikään joukkue olis valmis luopumaan noin paljosta Marnerin takia. Eiköhän Leafsikin tarjoa Marnerille yli 10 miljoonan sopimusta, ja siinä vaiheessa (tarkalleen ottaen yli $10,148,303 AAV) offer sheetistä saa takasin jo neljä ykköskierroksen varausvuoroa.

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Ei mahdollinen offer sheet mihinkään siirtoon johda mutta Marner katsoo sen silti kuten Nylanderkin teki. Tällä hetkellä hänellä ei ole edes mahdollista keskustella muiden kanssa.

Tarkennus, en ole muusta puhunut kuin offer sheetin katsomisesta.

Nylander ei edes saanut offer sheetiä, ja muutenkin kerto muistaakseni jo hyvissä ajoin ettei edes halua lähteä Torontosta mihinkään.

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Ei saanut mutta katsoi mahdollisen kortin ja varmasti neuvotteli muiden kanssa.

Kaikki on lojaaleja omalle seuralle paitsi Pulju.

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/tag/pht-power-rankings/

  1. Artemi Panarin — He will not be cheap but he is a superstar talent, one of the most productive players in all of hockey since he arrived in the NHL, a game-changing player, and still at an age where he should have several years of elite production ahead of him. If you can sign him, you should definitely sign him because you will not regret it.

  2. Joe Pavelski — During his peak Pavelski was one of the best goal scorers in the league and a criminally underrated player. As he started to get further into his 30s the goal-scoring started to decline because, well, that’s what happens when you get older. That aspect of his game saw a resurgence this past season with 38 goals in 75 games for the Sharks. That is great. What is not great is that resurgence was driven almost entirely by a 20.2 shooting percentage that was not only the highest of his career, but also way above his career average (12.5 percent). If you are expecting him to duplicate that in his age 35 season you are going to be in for a massive disappointment. Still, if he averages the same number of shots per game this upcoming season and simply shoots at his career average you are looking at around 25 goals. Combined with everything else he brings to the ice you are still getting a hell of a player, and because he is not likely to get a 5-7 year contract given his age, there is still probably a lot of value to be had here.

  3. Jake Gardiner — A couple of bad Game 7s will ruin his reputation among some in Toronto, but it would be idiotic to define his career (or define him as a player) based on that. He is the top defender on the market now that Erik Karlsson has re-signed in San Jose.

Boom or Bust

  1. Sergei Bobrovsky — We need to put Bobrovsky on a tier all to himself because he has the potential to be a worthwhile signing, while also maybe being an overpayment that also carries some significant risk. I just don’t feel strongly enough about any of those tiers to comfortably put him in one.

He has been one of the best goalies of his era and has two Vezina Trophies and an elite save percentage to prove it.

He has, at times, carried the Columbus Blue Jackets through the regular season.

He has also flopped spectacularly in the playoffs and is going to be 31 years old at the start of the 2019-20 season.

He is the best goalie available (and one of the best players available) and is probably going to end up in Florida with a HUGE contract.

His career probably is not going to just immediately crumble because he is 31 years old, but how many more years of elite play does he have in him? It is a worthwhile question to ask.

Potential overpays (but still good)

  1. Matt Duchene — Duchene might be the second biggest “name” on the market after Panarin, and if this were a ranking of just pure talent and who could make the biggest impact this upcoming season he would probably second or third on the list. But when you sign a free agent you are not just getting that player’s current level of production. You get the contract, the age, the likely decline, and everything that comes with it.

My biggest issue with Duchene is he seems likely to get a $9 or $10 million salary on a long-term contract and I am not sure he is a $9 or $10 million player for another six or seven years. Or even for one season. He does not drive possession, he has never really been an elite point producer, and he is not a cornerstone player that your team will be built around. He is still an excellent player and a great complementary piece, but will probably have a contract that is a tier above what he actually is (and will eventually be in the future) as a player. Such is life in free agency.

  1. Gustav Nyquist — He was still a great possession-driving player on some forgettable Detroit teams the past couple of years and he is going to score 20-25 goals for you. Will you pay more than you want for him? Probably, but he is also going to help your team.

  2. Mats Zuccarello — He is coming off a productive season when he was healthy, and he is still a creative playmaker, but he is set to enter his age 32 season and anytime you are dealing with players on the wrong side of 30 on the open market you run the risk of overpaying both short-term and long-term, especially when they are not truly elite in any one area.

  3. Anders Lee — An outstanding net-front presence on the power play and a total wrecking ball around the crease. But how confident are you in a seven-year (or eight-year if it is the Islanders that re-sign him) contract for a 29-year-old forward that plays a physically demanding style and may not age gracefully given his skillset? You might get a couple of 30-goal seasons out of him but he also might be a buyout candidate before the contract ends.

  4. Robin Lehner — He was never as bad as his final season in Buffalo looked, but if you pay him based on the season he had this past season for the Islanders you might be setting yourself up for disappointment.

  5. Justin Williams — Age is obviously a concern but you know what you are getting. What you are getting is great two-way play, 20-goals, 50-points, and a durable player that is going to be in your lineup every night. Eventually father time beats everyone, but Williams has not really shown any sign of slowing down. Yet.

  6. Ryan Dzingel — It all depends on the term. He should be a good second-line player and does not turn 28 until March, so you are still getting a player that is somewhat closer to his peak level of performance than most of the free agent forwards available.

  7. Micheal Ferland — He is more than just a big body that delivers hits; he can play and he can score some goals and he can do a lot of really good things on the ice. But there is at least one team out there that is going to look at the St. Louis Blues and think they have to pay a premium to get bigger and more physical just for the sake of getting bigger and physical.

  8. Brett Connolly — A good player coming off a career year in a free agent class where he will be somebody’s Plan B once the top players get signed. That is a recipe for a bad contract.

Risky signings

  1. Marcus Johansson — If he is healthy you are getting a productive top-six forward, but injuries have derailed his career the past two years. The recent history of head injuries is concerning.

  2. Anton Stralman — At one time, not that long ago, he was the perfect shutdown, defensive-defender for the modern NHL. But he is going to be 33 years old and coming off an injury-shortened season. How much does he have left in the tank?

  3. Wayne Simmonds — During his peak he was probably one of the two or three best power forwards in the league. He is no longer that player and the decline is very real. If you can get him for a cheap price to be a bottom-six depth player you might still be able to squeeze some value out of him.

  4. Corey Perry — The Ducks pretty much had no other choice but to buy out the remainder of his contract this offseason. He is a shell of his former self and is coming off an injury-shortened season where his production completely disappeared. Is there any chance for a rebound? Maybe, but do not expect much of one.

  5. Alex Chiasson — He scored 22 goals, but almost all of them came as a result of getting some significant ice time alongside Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl. They are not coming with him to his new team.

  6. Tyler Myers — He is not a bad player, but he is the exact player that a desperate general manager trying to save his job with a bad team will give a long-term contract to in free agency, leaving it for the next general manager to try and get rid of.

  7. Patrick Maroon — Always beware of the free agent role player coming from the current Stanley Cup champion that scored a few big goals during that playoff run.

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