Aika pitkälti riippuu rokotteista ja muista toimista kauanko tätä kestää ja kuinka monta vuotta viruksen muuntuminen lievemmäksi vie - hyvä muistaa, että influenssiakin on lievempiä ja vakavampia versioita liikkeellä kausittain.
Yhdessä tutkimuksessa pandemian alkuvaiheissa ennustettiin muiden liikkeellä olevien koronavirusten pohjalta rajoitustoimien jatkuvan 2022 asti ja eri malleja viruksen käyttäytymisestä 2025 asti.
Päättyykö pandemia vasta kun kaikilla on immuniteettia (rokotuksilla tai sairastamalla saatu) - ns. Exit Wave -mitä todennäköisesti Britanniassa yritetään. Tämäkään ei ihan turvallista ole vaan uusi riskiryhmä on rokottamattomat…
Aihetta pohdittu mm. täällä:
Pandemics end. But this one is not yet over, and especially not globally. Just 16 percent of the world’s population is fully vaccinated. Many countries, where barely 1 percent of people have received a single dose, are “in for a tough year of either lockdowns or catastrophic epidemics,” Adam Kucharski, the infectious-disease modeler, told me. The U.S. and the U.K. are further along the path to endemicity, “but they’re not there yet, and that last slog is often the toughest,” he added. “I have limited sympathy for people who are arguing over small measures in rich countries when we have uncontrolled epidemics in large parts of the world.”
Eventually, humanity will enter into a tenuous peace with the coronavirus. COVID-19 outbreaks will be rarer and smaller, but could still occur once enough immunologically naive babies are born. Adults might need boosters once immunity wanes substantially, but based on current data, that won’t happen for at least two years. And even then, “I have a lot of faith in the immune system,” Marion Pepper, the immunologist, said. “People may get colds, but we’ll have enough redundancies that we’ll still be largely protected against severe disease.” The bigger concern is that new variants might evolve that can escape our current immune defenses—an event that becomes more likely the more the coronavirus is allowed to spread. “That’s what keeps me up at night,” Georgetown’s Shweta Bansal told me.